[SMM Analysis] Post-National Day Ternary Cathode Precursor Market: Raw Material Costs Rise Significantly, Export Orders Face Policy Challenges

After the holiday, ternary cathode precursor prices continued to show a strong upward trend, driven by a sharp rise in cobalt sulphate prices. Currently, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remain stable temporarily, but there is still an expectation of future increases. Against the backdrop of rapidly rising raw material costs, some precursor producers have suspended quotations or maintained high price levels, significantly exceeding downstream's current acceptable psychological expectations. The market widely expects prices to continue rising, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong in the initial post-holiday period, with transactions being relatively cautious.

In October, ternary market demand continued the positive trend seen in September, and production is expected to increase further. Under these circumstances, cathode material producers with full production schedules still have procurement needs for ternary cathode precursors. Currently, cathode plants mainly rely on existing long-term agreements, completing transactions through back-to-back arrangements tied to raw material discounts. The discount coefficient is expected to potentially be adjusted upward in the future.

In Q4, domestic EV market demand is expected to maintain a positive trend; on the consumer market side, driven by stockpiling for the "Double 11" shopping festival, demand this month is also projected to improve. Overseas, after the holiday, export control policies issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs imposed restrictions on ternary cathode precursor exports, requiring relevant exporters to apply for export licenses from the competent commerce department of the State Council. In the short term, this policy may further suppress overseas orders for ternary cathode precursors, but in the long run, the trend of overseas capacity transfer for ternary cathode precursors and supply chain localization by overseas producers will continue.